Can the Texans Improve Their Seeding?

The Houston Texans are currently sitting pretty at the 4th seed in the AFC playoff standings, with a solid 9-5 record. They’ve already snagged the AFC South title, which means they’re locked into a playoff spot and a home game in the Wild Card round. But let’s dive into how they can climb up the ladder and make things even better.

How the Texans Can Improve Their Seeding

The Texans can move up from the 4th seed by beating the teams ahead of them in the standings. Right now, the top three seeds in the AFC are:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)– They’ve already won the AFC West.

2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)– They’ve won the AFC East.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)– They’ve made it to the playoffs.

To reach the 3rd seed the Texans need to win their remaining games and hope that the Steelers lose at least one more. They’re only one game behind them right now.

To reach the 2nd seed, well that’s a bit trickier. They’d need to win out and hope that the Bills lose two of their last three games. That’s not impossible, but it’s not very likely either.

The 1st seed is out of reach. The Chiefs are just too good right now. That’s not happening. 

Benefits of Improving Their Seeding

Social media is buzzing with questions about whether the Texans should rest their starters or give it their all to improve their playoff seeding. But what’s the real deal with better seeding? Well, higher-seeded teams get to play against lower-seeded opponents in the early rounds, which could make things a bit easier for them.

As the fourth seed, the Texans might have to battle either the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) or Denver Broncos (9-5) in the Wild Card round. But if they manage to climb up to the third seed, they might get a break with a potentially easier opponent like the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6). 

The 2nd seed also gets home-field advantage through at least two rounds of the playoffs (if they make it that far). The Texans’ offense, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, has been notably more effective at home and has a 5-2 record, 68.2% completion rate, 1,221 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, and a 100.9 passer rating. Meanwhile while playing away CJ has a 2-3 record, 58.6% completion rate, 918 passing yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 82.5 passer rating. CJ simply performs better at home.

The Texans’ defense has also shown better performance at home. Derek Stingley Jr. has recorded 3 interceptions in home games compared to 2 in away games. Will Anderson Jr. has been more productive at home, with multiple sacks and tackles for loss in home games as well.

What Needs to Happen Around the League

For the Texans to climb the ladder, here’s what they need to do:

Houston needs to beat their remaining opponents: Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Tennessee Titans. These are tough matches, but they’re crucial for moving up.

Pittsburgh needs to lose at least one game out of their remaining three.

Buffalo needs to lose at least two games for Houston to take the 2nd spot.

As of now with the 4th seed the Texans would host either the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) or the Denver Broncos (9-5) in a Wild Card game. Both teams are tied with Houston but currently occupy Wild Card spots because of tiebreakers. If they get to the second seed, they could face one of the lowest-seeded Wild Card teams, like the Chargers or another team that sneaks into contention.

It’s clear that the Texans should keep pushing forward to improve their seeding so they can finally make it to the AFC Championship game. Do you agree?

We’ll talk about it tonight with Drew Dougherty.